There has been a flurry of news stories of late about how high gas prices have people turning to scooters. You’re expected to listen to the “high gas prices drive scooter demand” angle, but the whole thing falls apart if you actually work the numbers. I like to think of this as “Metrics Judo”–turning someone’s own facts and figures back on them to get to the core of the argument.

As my old boss used to advise, “Before you get into any discussion of the issues, always make sure everyone agrees on the facts.”

For example, this morning I heard this story on NPR while driving to work. I was going to ride my scooter, but they’re predicting severe thunderstorms for the afternoon commute, which is no fun at all on two wheels, so I took my wife’s car. She’s not terribly pleased, but that’s life sometimes. If I had a public transit option, I’d take it in a second.

Getting back on topic, this story has a stronger safety component than most stories of its ilk–it actually stresses that scooters are dangerous, for a change, something that I have harped on in the past.

That part I liked.

But what I didn’t like was that the facts don’t actually support the story. First, the shop owner in SanFran said that his sales are up from ~6 scooters/month to his full shipment of 40/month. But he says he’s “thinking of” offering a promotion of “free gas all summer,” which he figures would cost him only $40/scooter. He also says that a scooter along with “all the safety gear” is only $3,000.**

If he’s selling out his inventory every month, why would he spend $1,600/month on a promotion? He’s supply-constrained, so the promo can’t increase revenue. The owner of a successful small business has to know that, or he won’t be a business owner for long. So, ignore everything but the cost per scooter–$40 or less than 10 gallons of gas per-scooter for the summer.

Then, we take that $40 cost over the course of the summer, compare it to the $3k-6k that people are spending for a scooter to save somewhere between $40 and $275* over the course of a “summer” (which I’ll define as May-Sept, or 5 months), depending on how heavily you want to weight the model in the scooter’s favor. That means that the average annual savings is between $100 and $700/year. This obviously doesn’t add up to the cost of the scooter, and it didn’t take anything but paying attention and some arithmetic to know that.

The only way that a scooter makes any sense at all is to do what I did–get rid of the car and buy the scooter instead. I did that and have been money ahead for years. The fact that I live in a highly-congested urban area where a scooter provides a tactical advantage in maneuvering through gridlock traffic and parking when I get to my destination is just gravy.

Now, turn this back to IT and/or Risk Management. How many times have we all been presented with data by some vendor which, with a little analysis, can easily be pulled apart and used to produce either the real value (rather than the one the marketing people want us to focus on) or, getting algebraic for a moment, allowed us to solve for the “real” data which, if we have to jump through these sorts of hoops, probably isn’t going to say what the vendor wants us to hear?

* Assume 60 mpg*10 gallons = 600 miles on a scooter, 30mpg*20 gallons = 600 miles in a car, so net fuel reduction of 10 gallons @ $4/gallon. Or, for a more fully loaded value, use $0.53/mile, the standard deduction for operating a vehicle, and now you’re looking at a cost avoidance of, at most, $278 ($318 - $40 for gas on the scooter, but no operating costs, so it’s still apples-to-oranges).

** He’s selling cheaper scooters than I ride. My scooter was $2,800, my helmet was about $250 on sale, I have two jackets, which were each about $200, my boots were over a $100 (leather, steel shank & toe, hard vibram soles), gloves another $50. A pair of armored trousers would be another $120 or so, which I’ll probably buy sooner than later now that I’m riding to work on a regular basis. Yes, I’m a bit of a safety nerd–I got of easily on learning that lesson the hard way.

Interesting analysis. However, people tend to make rash decisions based on emotion and not logic.

If a scooter gets 100 MPG when it actually gets 60 MPG, people see the 100 MPG and say I’ll take that over the 15 MPG I’m getting with my Yukon.

You raise some interesting discussion points in your article. However, I have to disagree with a few of your own comments:

1. Scooters are cheaper than cars because they get far better gas mileage at least 60mpg compared to 20mpg, are cheaper to buy ($3,000 compared to $15,000), and less accidents resulting in less repair costs

2. Scooters are statistically much safer than cars. Since most scooters are not designed for highway use, they avoid a lot of the accident prone areas. Also, scooter drivers have to have both hands on the steering instead of talking on the phone so this causes them to drive safer as well. Finally, they do not offer as much protection as cars so most scooter drivers are acutely aware of needing to drive safer. Obviously, not all scooter drivers follow this and so when accidents do occur they can be serious. However, scooters are made to avoid accidents in the first place. The argument here is similar to a small car compared to a big car regarding driving safety. Small cars avoid accidents better and big cars give you more protection in the event of an accident

Anyway, I did enjoy the read, just thought this needed to be added.

Best,
Kyle Park

Hi Kyle,

thanks for the comments. The answer to which is a more accurate description for your first point is “It depends.” After all, you have to substitute a lot of scooter miles for automotive miles to make up that $12,000 differential.

As to accidents, that’s also a big “it depends.” For me, I’ve found that riding in the city is dangerous. I get near-missed, swerved into, cut off, pulled in front of and generally nearly-flattened much more in my neighborhood than I ever do out in the ‘burbs.

The fact that I’m not talking on the phone does little or nothing to help protect me from the idiots around me who are. Sure, it’s illegal to talk on a handset and drive in the City of Chicago, but the cops would have to put down their own phones to issue a ticket for it, so I’m not holding my breath on that count.

As to accidents, if you factor our alcohol-related motorcycle accidents, you see that the accident rate becomes much lower for scooters/motorcycles (the two are not broken out in the National Highway Transportation Association statistics). The nominal rate is driven up by the fact that most people ride for pleasure and thus are much more likely to be drinking. The statistic that’s not in our favor is the injury accident rate. Without a helmet and full armor, you’re going to lose in any sort of impact going more than about five mph. Even with a helmet and armor, you’re still going to be pretty messed up at anything faster than parking lot speeds.

Weather permitting, I ride to work out in the ‘burbs, which is about 40 miles each way. The highway riding is the safest part of the trip because everyone just sits in their lane. It’s the stop signs and traffic lights where Bad Things happen.

As to whether or not scooters are made to avoid accidents, I have a number of motorcyle-riding friends who constantly argue that I don’t have enough power to accelerate out of the situation, so I’ll just opt out of that discussion except to say that I’ve found that only defensive, “ride like you’re invisible” tactics have been effective, and sometimes not even then.

As to risk-awareness, I think that the lack of safety gear on the part of scooter riders is the best indicator there. Every time I see some fool riding in a bicycle helmet or shorts & flip-flops, I know that’s a person who Doesn’t Get It. As I’ve said in the past, the pavement doesn’t get softer because you go down on a scooter.

Just to agree on the facts.
My scooter (180 cc 4-stroke) GETS 70 TO 78 MPG. -reliably.

The surprise bonus savings was my insurance. I pay about 200/yr to cover everything (even my body). Calculate that in. The gas savings, so far, will take about three years to break even. Had I purchased a much cheaper scooter, that math would be different.

I live in more rainy city than Seattle, but I ride my scooter nearly every day. The incalcuable part of the equation is how much fun it is. And I am writing this in December.